According to a December 30 2016 report from Turkey Dalal General Trading Company, the traded price at that point was USD2,750 per tonne fob.
The company finds that continued delays in India issuing import permits for Turkish material has failed to exert downward pressure on prices of Turkish white poppyseed. Abdul Haq of Turkey Dalal General Trading Company told The Public Ledger: “In Turkey speculators and rumors about the short crop will not let the prices to come down even if there is delay in exports.”
Haq recalled that the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) announced earlier that the available quantity from the July 2016 was 12,000 tonnes for India, and there was also the carry-over stock from the 2015 crop of 6,600 tonnes.
A second Turkish exporter had a slightly different view, stating: “Carry-over from the 2015 crop was much less than 6,600 tonnes, unless you consider contracted quantities which were shipped earlier in the season – in which case the carry-over would be quite a bit more. It is very difficult to put a figure to such stocks as they are distributed between the villages, speculators and exporters and nobody willingly shares any information about their long position.”
A third exporter said all the quantities referred to in the report from Turkey Dalal General Trading Company were correct, and the price indication was valid as prices were still in a range of USD2,750-2,800/tonne fob.
A fourth exporter initially stated only that he almost agreed with the information outlined in the report from Turkey Dalal General Trading Company. When asked to elaborate on this, he responded: “Crop size and available price level in Turkey is okay. For the next crop size, nobody can comment before March or April.”
Haq finds that Turkish poppyseed traders and speculators claim that the actual goods are a lot lower than the amount declared by TMO. Most of them claim the current available stock might not exceed 9,000 tonnes, although Turkey Dalal General Trading Company also understands that the yield was less during the harvest because of the excess heat and prolonged heatwave before harvest. However, the firm does not believe that the damage is more than 50%. “Speculators have already bought white poppyseeds in a big way and are trying to push the prices upwards and trying to create panic,” Haq claimed.
The second Turkish exporter said: “I believe there are 12,000-14,000 tonnes available in Turkey at the utmost – certainly not 18,000 but also certainly more than 9,000.”
Haq explained that since July 2016, India, the major importing country for Turkish white poppyseeds has not started issuing import licenses to the Indian importers due to ongoing court cases. It was expected that imports would recommence during December 2016 but once again the move was postponed by a last minute court order.
Avoiding ‘court cases galore’
The second Turkish exporter remarked: “Indeed, licences are delayed due to the usual games. Apparently, the Indian government asked for individual applications for a maximum of 90 tonnes per applicant and received 485 applications. Based on their goal of 18,000 tonnes for Turkish licences that would mean barely over 40 tonnes per applicant and nobody is happy – but they cannot give more to some and less to others as that would mean court cases galore.”
Haq added that it should be noted that in December 2016 the Indian government allowed China to export about 6,500 tonnes for 2017 and this is likely to start in the coming weeks. In addition, the new Indian poppyseed crop is likely to be harvested during March-April 2017 and this is double the size of the last year crop, he noted.
He predicted that the prolonged delay in the import of poppyseeds into India will allow for the consumption of the remaining goods and will make the importers rush to Turkey.
In addition, according to Haq, the quality of Chinese origin poppyseeds is not as good as Turkey and the shelf life of the goods is less than a year, and these factors determine that Indian Importers avoid it to an extent.However, it looks as though once India starts importing poppyseeds then the prices in Turkey will suddenly move to new highs, possibly exceeding USD3,500/tonne fob before the new crop in July 2017, Haq suggested.
The second Turkish exporter observed that the damage to the 2016 crop is a reality and 2016 plantings were problematic, so he expects a firm market this year. “One must keep in mind that 2,000-3,000 tonnes of these stocks are not easily prised from the strong hands that hold them, no matter what the price level. All in all, an interesting situation with a very high possibility of higher prices,” he stated.
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